Global Trends

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Globalisation is shaping not just economies, but societies, polities and international relations. Many assume it is also, for good or ill, an unstoppable force. History, however, suggests this is not so. We can neither assume globalisation will persist, nor that it will be desirable in all respects. But one thing we must assume: it is ours collectively to shape. If globalisation is done wisely, this century could prove an unparalleled era of peace, partnership and prosperity.…

China’s GDP per capita, relative to the US, is forecast to rise from 2% in 1980 to 24% in 2019, an extraordinary performance.


China has become a middle-income country with a GDP per capita at PPP forecast to be higher than Brazil’s by 2019. India, too, has registered convergence, but on a more modest scale. Indonesia and Turkey have also done quite well. But Brazil and Mexico are forecast to be poorer relative to the US in 2019 than they were back in 1980. Seizing globalisation-led opportunities is hard.…

While economies have become more interconnected, governments continue to supply security, implement laws, regulate commerce and manage money. Where commerce flows freely, more than one jurisdiction is affected and, by definition, all involved must agree to the legal and regulatory frameworks within which transactions occur.

This contrast between the economic and political dimensions of our globalising world is asource of unpredictability.



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